Imagine a world where there is no parts inventory. Anywhere. Manufacturers make whatever they want, instantly, on site or close by. Your washing machine repairer has the part they need ready to collect as soon as they tap the order on their smartphone, without it ever sitting on a shelf. No need for warehouses. Pretty scary huh?
Should we be frightened?
What is it?
You can buy a baby 3D printer at Stationery Warehouse. Hook it up to a PC, feed it some raw plastic, a digital file and ‘hey presto’ you can make almost any shape.
Some experts prefer the term ‘additive manufacturing’, and the wide variety of materials and processes stretches all the way to solid metals. It is also described as the third way, making something three dimensional without moulding or machining it. 3D.
The magic comes when millions of different parts can be produced from the same raw material and machine.
“Keeping spare parts in inventory could become a thing of the past.”
A few minutes on Google and you can find plenty of references to how 3D printing will revolutionise supply chains. From bits and pieces all the way up to boats and buildings, clothes to body parts, motorbikes and aircraft engines, there’s much excitement.
Some gurus claim 3D will do away with local parts, others point to complex assemblies made in one go. Apparently we could save $billions globally and cut a swathe through carbon emissions (and transport and warehousing) in the process.
“Linear value chains may be replaced by agile networks of on-demand FabLabs; … supply chains could undergo a dramatic change – there would be a much higher flow of .. input materials than intermediary inputs and finished goods… Keeping spare parts in inventory could become a thing of the past.” says the World Economic Forum’s 2020 3D white paper. It notes that companies like Mercedes are already doing this for spares of older models.
The WEF says estimates of global trade affected vary considerably; from 25% down by 2060, to 1-2% down by 2030. Other estimates say -10%. Or -40%. Take your pick, it’s all headed south.
Woah, Hold Ya Horses
It is easy to get over excited by the hype, but life just isn’t that simple according to experts I interviewed. Here’s what we need to know;
“Additive manufacturing is far more complex,” says Colonel Stephen Piercy, Defence Logistics Command at NZDF. With machined or formed parts, everything is known. “Additive … every time you are doing it you’ve got an unknown specification.” There is a risk you could make something that fits, but fails in use. He chaired the NZDF working group on 3D, a technique they are already spearheading at their Trentham site.
You produce mechanical properties during the build so it’s a little bit more difficult to qualify the process, says Bruno le Razer of titanium specialists Zenith Technica. “The idea [3D] is great but for some applications you need qualifications and set up to be certified. There are limited companies with right qualification and certification.”
Often, you can replicate the shape, but can’t replicate the functionality or material, says Hayden Bennett, Director at Auckland based Clone 3D. One well know dishwasher manufacturer reckons only about half a dozen parts could be 3D now. “You can do crazy things but it’s down to materials. The biggest growth is in materials.”
NZDF agrees. Their Trentham experts see at least one new material developed every week, from resin or metal to carbon reinforced plastic. And that creates another area to consider; the 3D materials supply chain. “It changes the supply chain material that you are going to have, from having completed parts, to materials that allow you to complete parts,” says Col. Piercy. “Our supply chain still needs to be there.”
That can bring new challenges. For example, solid metal is pretty safe, but the material to produce it can have a dangerous goods rating.
You can make a product that has several parts in one go, even moving parts, or one you couldn’t even make conventionally, comments Carl Johnston of FI Innovations in Invercargill. The example touted is a complete bicycle gear derailleur assembly, including cogs and springs.
But you still need to machine moving parts smooth and the one I have seen would break if you actually put it on a bike. One for the future maybe (or a different material).
“3D is not always the way forward, or is just one part of the whole process,” says Hayden Bennett. And injection moulding is currently so much faster and cheaper for common products.
Another big issue is intellectual property rights. You just need a digital file to produce a shape, but big companies make a lot of money through their spares and it isn’t a gravy train they will jump off lightly. And will Customs keep up?
Horses for Courses
There is already a well-travelled path for 3D; rapid prototyping. It slashes the design – test - redesign time. Yet it is already making inroads in other areas.
“It’s ideal for small components and smaller production runs under a thousand a year,” states Hayden Bennett. And 18 months ago I wrote about Rocket Lab already using 3D for complex rocket motors.
It is also a shoe-in for many obsolete parts. So while KiwiRail are “..not actively investigating incorporating 3D printing into our maintenance operations”, NZDF are already on their way. It is a way of recreating supply chains that don’t exist any more, comments Col. Piercy.
He sees a future where spares in stores will partly be replaced by a mobile container with 3D printers and materials.
Next Phase
Up until now, 3D is trying to replicate parts designed to be made by traditional processes. The next era is when products are designed with 3D from the outset. There are already forces pushing in this direction, such as the EU ‘right to repair’ law coming into force next year.
“We really have to take advantage of what a 3D printer will do,” says Hayden Bennett. “We haven’t had this tech for very long, there’s not the design knowledge, skills.” There is so much potential in learning how to design for the technology. “The only way we can do that is though time.”
Chris Hilleard of Callaghan Innovation’s AddLab agrees; “Uptake will be significantly more. We’re already on the downward slope of the hype curve, upward slope of the take up curve. In five to ten years we’ll be really up the curve for what to do and how to use it.”
He points to schools, colleges and universities already getting their students confident in the additive manufacturing world.
The next generation will make our future in 3D.
Article first published in FTD April 2020
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