Will decarbonisation of transport syphon the diesel from your tank any time soon?
The Government are gunning for us. The Zero Carbon Bill, along with other statements and initiatives show that they are expecting us to clean up our act. They are not alone; the Productivity Commission says that by 2050 we need to stop burning fossil fuels. 18% of emissions are down to transport, and heavy road vehicles account for 19% of all transport emissions.
Things are getting worse. Over the next decade in Auckland, the heavy vehicle commercial fleet is predicted to increase fuel consumption by 23%, accounting for 85% of the predicted increase in transport emissions.
The Government would like to see action. EECA is administering a Low Emissions Vehicle Contestable Fund of up to $7 million annually, and many of the projects supported are for commercial vehicles. It will only fund the extra cost of vehicles and infrastructure and does need matching commercial funding.
Reducing risk
That might seem like little more than a drop on the bucket, but the point of the Contestable Fund is reducing risk, according to Liz Yeaman, Managing Director of specialist green transport consultancy Retyna. “It provides confidence. A lot of those projects are just coming to the stage where final data is available. By the time they [electric trucks] reach price competitiveness, they have been seen to work in practice.”
Biofuel is an attractive prospect for some. It is described as a ‘drop in’ fuel, as it is a direct substitute for mineral diesel; just drop it in the tank and go. However there are question marks over price, availability, and uptake.
“..market forces alone will not be sufficient to kick start large-scale biofuel production,” says Dr Paul Bennett, Science Leader Clean Technologies at Government science body Scion. With estimates ranging from 5-50% for uptake, any prediction would seem more like a guess.
We’re just starting to toy with electric commercial vehicles. Compared to diesel, the ‘fuel’ is cheap as chips, but sceptics argue they are too expensive, and hamstrung by limited range. “As to price and range, one is coming down and the other is going up. We’re starting to approach competitiveness on a total cost of ownership basis,” says Liz Yeaman. Only 22% of freight movements are long distance anyway.
Hydrogen has long range potential
Electric isn’t the only game in town either. There’s a lot of interest around hydrogen as a transport fuel. Combining with oxygen from the air, the main emission is water, with energy converted to electricity to drive the truck. And range can be impressive, up to 1,600km.
New Plymouth based Hiringa Energy says they are developing hydrogen fuel production from a four turbine wind farm. This powers the electrolysis needed for production, keeping their ‘green’ credentials. However infrastructure and take up is still in its infancy.
They see batteries as complimentary, with longer distances and heavier vehicles hydrogen powered. They claim a little infrastructure is all that is needed to make an impact, as refuelling times are closer to diesel, much faster than battery charging.
So can we make use of New Zealand’s electricity, 85% of which is produced from renewable sources?
There are some initiatives to help get things moving. Road User Charges are not applied to commercial size EVs until they reach 2% of the vehicle fleet. We have some way to go; as of July this year only 766 electric vans, trucks and utilities were on our roads according to Motor Vehicle Register statistics.
Foodstuffs trial electric vans, and now trucks
One of the leaders in this tiny pack is Foodstuffs. Two years ago they imported a fleet of 28
used, low mileage Nissan eNV200 vans. These have been used throughout the country, mainly of deliveries of online orders. “They have proven extremely popular with stores and have delivered good savings in terms of CO2 and fuel,” says Mike Sammons, Sustainability Manager of Foodstuffs.
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They are upping the size, again with the support of the Contestable Fund. A 6T, 11T and refrigerated 24T truck, each with 2-300km range, will “all hit the road by Christmas,” says Mr Sammons. “The trial with these three trucks will enable Foodstuffs to assess what a wider opportunity might look like. The trucks are fitted with slow chargers which suits their work habits - they will be able to be put on charge for 12 hours overnight. Routes have been developed to maximise the functionality and range of the battery.”
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How far can they go? As a Concept report earlier this year notes; weight and charge time penalties can be more significant with heavier EVs. That report also showed that EVs are already almost cost competitive with diesel over the lifetime of a vehicle, and they are still improving. Hydrogen is still some way behind. Purchase cost? A heavy EV can cost half as much again as a diesel one at present. Double that again for hydrogen.
Hooking up to the grid
One issue with electric vehicles is how, when and where to charge them. Plugging into the mains might be OK for a Nissan Leaf, but restricts the mileage that can be loaded especially with a truck battery 4-10 times the capacity.
However some chargers are coming on stream that allow much more. Wellington already has ten electric double decker buses, and these now connect to a 450kW charger for a few minutes top up when they get to the end of their route; enough to power the 35km round trip while keeping battery packs small, and therefore lighter and cheaper.
While that might seem an attractive answer, there could be a twist. Stick some of those on loading docks at a DC and you could easily need several megawatts of extra electricity supply. According to an electricity network insider, that might not be available without upgrading. “The closer the site is to our local ‘zone’ substations, generally the easier it is to connect extra load,” he said. “The Electricity Authority Distribution Pricing Principles guide electricity networks to pass costs to whoever is driving additional costs to the network and receiving the benefit.”
So it might pay to investigate electricity supply when future-proofing a new-build or relocated DC.
Another issue with alternative fuels is the number of owner drivers. There is increased risk associated with high vehicle cost and limited compatible refuelling sites. However there are risks of sticking with diesel for too long according to Liz Yeaman; “At moment residual value of electric trucks is highly uncertain. Within a few years, it’ll be the diesel truck. Who is still going to want to buy it?”
The upshot of all these alternatives, many presented and debated at the recent Freight Futures conference, is that decarbonisation is coming. That will increase the variety of fuel sources, but also might spur a rethink in distribution patterns to fit with lower emission alternatives.
“Things are changing quickly,” adds Liz Yeaman. “You need to look at electric trucks now, at least for journeys within regions, or you’ll quite quickly get left behind.”
Article first published October 2019 in FTD Magazine
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